Epidemiology and Infection
- Epidemiology and Infection / Volume 140 / Issue 07 / July 2012, pp 1236-1243
- Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011 This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States.
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268811001919 (About DOI), Published online: 19 September 2011
Climate and weather
An exploration of spatial patterns of seasonal diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand
B. J. J. McCORMICKa1 c1, W. J. ALONSOa1 and M. A. MILLERa1
a1 Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
SUMMARY
Studies of temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease can suggest putative aetiological agents and environmental or socioeconomic drivers. Here, the seasonal patterns of monthly acute diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand, where diarrhoeal morbidity is increasing, are explored. Climatic data (2003–2006) and Thai Ministry of Health annual reports (2003–2009) were used to construct a spatially weighted panel regression model. Seasonal patterns of diarrhoeal disease were generally bimodal with aetiological agents peaking at different times of the year. There is a strong association between daily mean temperature and precipitation and the incidence of hospitalization due to acute diarrhoea in Thailand leading to a distinct spatial pattern in the seasonal pattern of diarrhoea. Model performance varied across the country in relation to per capita GDP and population density. While climatic factors are likely to drive the general pattern of diarrhoeal disease in Thailand, the seasonality of diarrhoeal disease is dampened in affluent urban populations.
(Accepted August 30 2011)
(Online publication September 19 2011)
Key Words:
Correspondence:
c1 Author for correspondence: Dr B. J. J. McCormick, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. (Email: ben.mccormick@nih.gov)
