Epidemiology and Infection

Table of Contents - 2005 - Volume 133, Issue 06  


Matrix models for childhood infections: a Bayesian approach with applications to rubella and mumps

M. N. KANAAN a1 and C. P. FARRINGTON a2c1
a1 Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Lebanon
a2 Department of Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

Article author query
kanaan mn   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 
farrington cp   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 

Abstract

Mathematical modelling is an established tool for planning and monitoring vaccination programmes. However, the matrices describing contact rates are based on subjective choices, which have a large impact on results. This paper reviews published models and obtains prior model probabilities based on publication frequency and expert opinion. Using serological survey data on rubella and mumps, Bayesian methods of model choice are applied to select the most plausible models. Estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 are derived, taking into account model uncertainty and individual heterogeneity in contact rates. Twenty-two models are documented, for which publication frequency and expert opinion are negatively correlated. Using the expert prior with individual heterogeneity, R0=6·1 [95% credible region (CR) 4·3–9·2] for rubella and R0=19·3 (95% CR 4·0–31·5) for mumps. The posterior modes are insensitive to the prior for rubella but not for mumps. Overall, assortative models with individual heterogeneity are recommended.

(Published Online June 2 2005)
(Accepted August 19 2004)


Correspondence:
c1 Department of Statistics, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK. (Email: c.p.farrington@open.ac.uk)

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